1. Emerging World Order

Ongoing disruptions in power, alliances, and influence are throwing the global order (since the fall of the Berlin Wall) upside down.

The global balance of power is shifting as democracies face challenges, geopolitical rivalries intensify, securitization is ongoing and technology reshapes the way nations interact.

Countries are rethinking their trade and political alliances, with traditional organizations like NATO and the OECD under pressure. At the same time, the rise of BRICS+ and other coalitions reflects a move toward a more multipolar world.

In the digital realm, divisions such as the "splinternet" and U.S.-China tech competition are creating fragmented, polarized systems. This emerging world order is defined by new power players, evolving values, and the reimagining of global governance.

• Data: China Takes Over

  By 2035, China is projected to have a GDP of approx. $51.5 trillion compared to the US' projected GDP of $33.8 trillion (surpassing the US in 2030 as the world’s biggest economy). [Lowy Institute (2024), "GDP in 2035"]

• Shift: From Internet to Splinternet

  The internet, once a borderless tool for global connection, is fracturing into distinct digital ecosystems driven by political and economic rivalries.

  Nations like China and Russia are creating heavily controlled online spaces through initiatives like the Great Firewall and Sovereign Internet Law. The EU is asserting its influence with privacy regulations like GDPR, while China’s Digital Silk Road exports surveillance tech and digital infrastructure to over 140 countries.

• Implications: New Collaboration Patterns

  Private Sector: Value Chain Resilience

  With regional trade networks changing the global economy, businesses must diversify suppliers and relocate manufacturing closer to key markets to maintain stability.
  
  Public Sector: Stronger Regional Collaboration

  Governments, NGOs, and development agencies must partner with regional and local organizations to tackle shared crises like climate change, migration, and public health.

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